On 12 Dec, there were a total of approx 2500 flag views on the Flag Counter. (Compare that total and the picture above with the new total and current status below.)
At that time, the top 47 countries had 3 or more flag visits. There is room for 48 countries in the display, so the question was, which country would be the next to have 3 flag visits and thus fill a spot in the display?
Thirteen countries had 2 visits each, from # 48 (Georgia) shown on the screen capture above, to # 60 (Vietnam). Note: If you click on the live Flag Counter display at the bottom of the page, you can see all 90 or so countries that have one or more flags.
I commented that one of those thirteen countries with 2 flags at the time would most likely be the 48th country to boast three or more unique visits to PhilosFX. I allowed that it was also possible, but unlikely, for a country with one or fewer visits to get to three faster.
Then I posed these two questions:
1. How would you calculate the odds of any one of these countries becoming the 48th country to boast 3 or more unique visits to PhilosFX?
2. Using your approach, which country do you predict will be the 48th country to boast 3 or more unique visits to PhilosFX?
My unpublished answer:
1. The odds of any one of those 13 countries which already had 2 flags being next to get a third are about the same, approximately 0.12% each (2/2500 + 1/2500).
2. I would use momentum to weight the odds in favor of those countries with the most recent activity. Using a sliding scale, I would put Georgia's odds of being the next country to get its third flag at about 0.15%
3. The odds of a country with one flag getting two more before any of those with two get a third are remote (1/2500 * 1/2500 * 1/2500).
4. The odds of a country with zero flags getting three before any of those with two get a third are vanishingly small.
Based on this logic, my guess was that Georgia had a slight advantage to become the 48th country with two flags to get the third, which--if all else remained unchanged, would push Georgia up to 41st place and drop Chile into 48th on the display.
A week later, on 19 December, it happened! All 48 countries in the display had 3 or more flags. By then, lots of changes had taken place to the rankings in the range from 27 to 61. Nine countries in this range moved up in the rankings, only one stayed at the same position, and the remaining 15 slipped due to inactivity.
Georgia's slight advantage over the competition was not enough to produce the weakly predicted result. Here are some thoughts as to why it did not:
At that time, the top 47 countries had 3 or more flag visits. There is room for 48 countries in the display, so the question was, which country would be the next to have 3 flag visits and thus fill a spot in the display?
Thirteen countries had 2 visits each, from # 48 (Georgia) shown on the screen capture above, to # 60 (Vietnam). Note: If you click on the live Flag Counter display at the bottom of the page, you can see all 90 or so countries that have one or more flags.
I commented that one of those thirteen countries with 2 flags at the time would most likely be the 48th country to boast three or more unique visits to PhilosFX. I allowed that it was also possible, but unlikely, for a country with one or fewer visits to get to three faster.
Then I posed these two questions:
1. How would you calculate the odds of any one of these countries becoming the 48th country to boast 3 or more unique visits to PhilosFX?
2. Using your approach, which country do you predict will be the 48th country to boast 3 or more unique visits to PhilosFX?
My unpublished answer:
1. The odds of any one of those 13 countries which already had 2 flags being next to get a third are about the same, approximately 0.12% each (2/2500 + 1/2500).
2. I would use momentum to weight the odds in favor of those countries with the most recent activity. Using a sliding scale, I would put Georgia's odds of being the next country to get its third flag at about 0.15%
3. The odds of a country with one flag getting two more before any of those with two get a third are remote (1/2500 * 1/2500 * 1/2500).
4. The odds of a country with zero flags getting three before any of those with two get a third are vanishingly small.
Based on this logic, my guess was that Georgia had a slight advantage to become the 48th country with two flags to get the third, which--if all else remained unchanged, would push Georgia up to 41st place and drop Chile into 48th on the display.
A week later, on 19 December, it happened! All 48 countries in the display had 3 or more flags. By then, lots of changes had taken place to the rankings in the range from 27 to 61. Nine countries in this range moved up in the rankings, only one stayed at the same position, and the remaining 15 slipped due to inactivity.
Georgia's slight advantage over the competition was not enough to produce the weakly predicted result. Here are some thoughts as to why it did not:
1. The list is volatile. Only one country (Israel) out of 35 in this range did not move up or down in the rankings.
2. At the low-volume end of the spectrum, small increases of just one flag can produce fairly wide swings in the rankings.
a. Biggest rank gainers: Serbia and Argentina went from 2 flags to 3 and climbed 16 and 14 positions, respectively.
2. At the low-volume end of the spectrum, small increases of just one flag can produce fairly wide swings in the rankings.
a. Biggest rank gainers: Serbia and Argentina went from 2 flags to 3 and climbed 16 and 14 positions, respectively.
b. The rising countries displaced some inactive ones more than others, depending on the date of the most recent activity. Bulgaria, Ecuador, and New Zealand fell 4, 4, and 5 positions, respectively
c. Iceland got its 2d flag and moved up 11 positions to #50, ahead of idle Georgia!
3. Big jumps in the rankings by Pakistan (43 to 38) and Portugal (46-39) within the Top 48 and more dramatically by Serbia (59 to 43) and Argentina (58 to 44) into the Top 48 caused two countries to drop out of the Top 48: Chile (47 to 49) and Georgia (48 to 51).
As a result of dramatic gains by a few countries, Saudi Arabia, formerly #45, was knocked down three positions to occupy the 48th position on the display. My pick, Georgia, still waiting for flag #3, dropped three positions to #51.
It'll all change daily, and it doesn't really matter much in the grand scheme of things.
I guess the bottom line to all of this is simple: I really like knowing that people from all around the planet have discovered PhilosFX, and many of them have come back. There are, as of this writing, about 2750 unique visitors from about 90 countries, and over 14,000 visits in all. Clearly many of the 2750 are repeat visitors.
When I was young I loved connecting to the world around me by collecting postage stamps from around the globe. In this day of electronic communication, stamps are becoming a thing of the past. These days I am watching my flag count instead, feeling somehow connected to the global stream of consciousness, and counting my many blessings.
But then again, I just like to count.
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