The ‘doomed’ resistance in Ukraine

A reflection inspired by McAulay's Horatius at the Bridge 

Reading about the 'doomed' resistance in Ukraine reminds me of McAulay's Horatius at the Bridge [1], especially these lines:

“…To every man upon this earth, death cometh soon or late;

 And how can man die better than facing fearful odds,

For the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods,

"And for the tender mother who dandled him to rest,

And for the wife who nurses his baby at her breast,

And for the holy maidens who feed the eternal flame…”

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems determined to win at all costs. Meanwhile, under Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the people of Ukraine are unexpectedly and boldly defiant. Like Horatius at the Tiber river bridge, they are fighting, defending, holding--protecting their families and their property, and giving nothing away. 

Reminiscent of Lars Porsena's Etruscan army attacking Rome as described in McAulay's epic poem, Russia’s forces are extended. The logistics tail is weakening. With the ruble’s value plummeting, the attackers risk finding themselves out of food and fuel, losing support from home, and surrounded by angry defenders wielding pitchforks and torches. 

Putin’s arsenal includes artillery, airborne infantry, and nuclear weapons. Let’s hope a desperate Putin does not resort to drastic (read: nuclear) measures. 

Wait! Strike that.... Let's not hope. Hope is not a method [2]. Let us instead work, co-operate, and sacrifice to ensure Putin does not employ his nukes and thus invite mutually assured destruction.  

Is Ukraine 'doomed'? 

Against Putin's deep resources, Ukraine cannot win militarily, but that does not mean they will be "defeated." Zelensky’s bravery is rallying the West. The resistance has already lasted longer than many analysts predicted, and longer is better! The extended resistance has bought time for the EU and the UN to impose sharper sanctions, cut off SWIFT, and consider Ukraine's request for expedited membership in EU. These measures offer the best path to a favorable outcome but they still require Putin to capitulate. Support is taking many forms, but we in the West who prefer to see a free and independent Ukraine should be reluctant to cause a military escalation. 

Putin’s unlikely to withdraw. His military victory is inevitable but increasingly expensive. Without military aid from the West, there will be heavy casualties before the smoke clears. Having won the territory at great expense, Putin will install a puppet government and attempt to control the population. I suspect he will find governing the region and the people of Ukraine even more difficult and costly than capturing the territory.

The consequences of a Putin victory in Ukraine are impossible to calculate. The former Soviet satellite nations of Estonia, Latvia, Moldova would face attacks next, forcing NATO to invoke Article 5. Russia's allies, China, North Korea, and Iran would join the fray. China would take Taiwan. North Korea would make a move on South Korea. Surely Iran would push west past Iraq and Syria in their attempt to shove Israel off the map. In short, a Putin victory in Ukraine is tantamount to Armageddon.  

To forestall a third World War, we must support Ukraine, NATO, and the EU, to contain Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. 

The long game for Ukraine is to see the day when Putin finally realizes he made a terrible mistake. Once his propaganda machine is unable to persuade, and his economy is in tatters, and his oligarchs have fled with what they could salvage from their wealth, the aspirations of a dictator and would-be emperor will implode. Balance based on fair trade and strong defenses will be restored.  

So the Western alliance is walking a fine line here, staying on the sidelines, using diplomacy and economic sanctions instead of providing direct support to Zelensky. Putin is determined and undeterred. Many Ukrainian fighters and civilians will be casualties in the conflict. Eventually, Putin will come to see Kyiv as his Waterloo. He will fail as a dictator, and disappear into the dustbin of history. Then these Ukrainian dead, who died facing 'fearful odds', shall not have died in vain. 

Thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing.

Notes:

[1] Gill, N.S. (2020, August 26). 'Horatius at the Bridge' by Thomas Babington McAulay. Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com/horatius-at-the-bridge-4070724 

[2] The title of General Gordon Sullivan's memoir is apropos. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/175183/hope-is-not-a-method-by-gordon-r-sullivan/