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| The 2018 Cotton Bowl will see #3 Notre Dame battle #2 Clemson |
On December 29, in Dallas, Notre Dame takes on Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. The two are fighting for the right to play the winner of the Orange Bowl (Alabama vs Oklahoma) for the National Championship on January 7.
I pick Notre Dame to win the Cotton Bowl, and I base my prediction on tradition, strength of schedule, performance against common opponents, and more tradition.
Tradition
This is Notre Dame's first appearance in the now five-year old Championship Series format. Clemson has had more experience: this will be Clemson's fourth year participating. And they have been successful. They are 2-1 in previous appearances.Notre Dame has had less time in the spotlight lately. As mentioned, this game will be their first appearance in the CFP. The last time Notre Dame played for a National Championship was under the CFP's predecessor, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS, 1998-2013). SEC juggernaut Alabama embarrassed the Irish 42-14 in the final BCS game (2012-13 season). Overall, the Irish were an unimpressive 0-4 in the 16-year history of the BCS. Furthermore, Notre Dame's last National Championship is now 30 years old (1988).
Despite lackluster post-season performance in recent years, Notre Dame football has one of the most impressive resumes in the sport: 7 Heisman winners, 34 All-Americans, 51 Hall of Fame inductees (45 players and 6 coaches), and 13 national championships recognized by the NCAA. On top of all of those athletic accolades, Notre Dame consistently ranks near the top of the NCAA for graduating scholar-athletes.
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College National Championships
Meanwhile, Clemson only faced two ranked teams. To finish 13-0, Clemson took down Furman (are they even Division I?), #19 Texas A&M, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, #20 Syracuse, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Duke, South Carolina, and Pittsburgh.
Here is how the two teams compare against three common opponents
Comparing the results versus common opponents, Clemson scored more points (132-111), Notre Dame allowed more points (44-36), and Clemson had the higher for-against delta (96-67). Based on how the two teams fared against common opponents, Clemson looks superior--on paper.
Notre Dame also would have scored more points had they started quarterback Ian Book all season and had Dexter Williams not missed the first four games.
When I think of Notre Dame and the Cotton Bowl, I think of the famous Chicken Soup Bowl where a sick Joe Montana sipped soup on the sidelines between offensive series and led the Irish to one of the greatest come-from-behind victories in college football history. That was 1979: Irish vs Houston. I watched that game just after I learned that my application to attend Notre Dame the following fall had been accepted. The legend of Joe Montana was indelibly etched on my psyche that day.
What though the odds be great or small, I'll cheer for Notre Dame over all!
Notre Dame enters the Cotton Bowl 12-point underdogs, but I'll take 'em straight up!
Advantage: Notre Dame
Strength of Schedule
As an elite, independent program. Notre Dame typically has one of the toughest schedules in college football. During its 12-0 run, Notre Dame defeated #14 Michigan, Ball State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, #7 Stanford, #24 Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Navy, Northwestern, Florida State, #12 Syracuse and USC. So they played and beat four ranked teams. Florida State, Pittsburgh, and USC are usually ranked teams that are having off seasons.Meanwhile, Clemson only faced two ranked teams. To finish 13-0, Clemson took down Furman (are they even Division I?), #19 Texas A&M, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, #20 Syracuse, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Duke, South Carolina, and Pittsburgh.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Common Opponents
Safe to say, Notre Dame had the much tougher season. Despite the quality gap, you'll notice three teams in common to both Notre Dame and Clemson. How the teams fared against common opponents can be a proxy for head-to-head competition.
Here is how the two teams compare against three common opponents
Comparing the results versus common opponents, Clemson scored more points (132-111), Notre Dame allowed more points (44-36), and Clemson had the higher for-against delta (96-67). Based on how the two teams fared against common opponents, Clemson looks superior--on paper.
Clearly, Clemson's offense put up some big numbers, and not just against Furman and Georgia Southern. However, look deeper and notice that the Tigers barely eeked out wins against the two ranked teams they faced. They beat #19 Texas AM by only 2 points. Clemson's best win was versus #20 Syracuse, 27-23. In the most interesting result comparing common opponents, Notre Dame vanquished #12 Syracuse, 36-3.
Notre Dame also would have scored more points had they started quarterback Ian Book all season and had Dexter Williams not missed the first four games.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Tradition, revisited
When I think of Notre Dame and the Cotton Bowl, I think of the famous Chicken Soup Bowl where a sick Joe Montana sipped soup on the sidelines between offensive series and led the Irish to one of the greatest come-from-behind victories in college football history. That was 1979: Irish vs Houston. I watched that game just after I learned that my application to attend Notre Dame the following fall had been accepted. The legend of Joe Montana was indelibly etched on my psyche that day.
What though the odds be great or small, I'll cheer for Notre Dame over all!
Advantage: Notre Dame
Prediction
I pick Notre Dame to win and I base my prediction on tradition, strength of schedule, performance against common opponents, and more tradition. Two explosive offenses, two stout defenses, and two impactful special teams meet in what promises to be one heckuva game.
As for what happens after the Irish win in the Cotton Bowl, I am somewhat more circumspect. I prefer to follow Coach Kelly and focus on One Game at a Time.
Go, Irish! Beat Tigers!
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