Monday, December 12, 2011

Odds-On Favorite?


Have you noticed the Flag Counter near the bottom of the Home page on this blog? I'm keeping track of the people from various countries that have visited PhilosFX one or more times. Each unique visit from a country increases the flag count from that country by one. Repeat visits from the same URL are not tracked.

Each of the following countries has two (2) unique visits to PhilosFX. The most recent visit occurred on the date shown. My flag counter shows only the top 48 countries to visit PhilosFX. Thirteen countries are tied for 48th place with two or more unique visits. Georgia is currently in the 48th position by virtue of the fact that it has the most recent 2d visit.

  • Georgia December 12, 2011
  • Slovenia December 9, 2011
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina December 8, 2011
  • Iraq December 2, 2011
  • Hong Kong December 2, 2011
  • Singapore December 2, 2011
  • Peru November 17, 2011
  • Croatia November 15, 2011
  • Lebanon October 27, 2011
  • Bahrain October 27, 2011
  • Argentina October 24, 2011
  • Serbia October 17, 2011
  • Vietnam October 16, 2011


One of these thirteen countries will most likely be the 48th country to boast three or more unique visits to PhilosFX. Of course, it’s also possible that a country with one or fewer visits now could get to three faster.



Questions:

1. How would you calculate the odds of any one of these countries becoming the 48th country to boast 3 or more unique visits to PhilosFX?

2. Using your approach, which country do you predict will be the 48th country to boast 3 or more unique visits to PhilosFX?


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