The Motte and Bailey Fallacy

 A medieval Motte and Bailey castle, the namesake for an interesting logical fallacy

Are you interested in logical fallacies? That is to say, do you study common flaws in thinking either to avoid them personally or spot them in sales pitches and other persuasive arguments? In my experience, this has become a critical survival skill.

If you are with me so far, (a) thank you, and (b) have you heard of the Motte and Bailey Fallacy? This particular logical flaw is not as well-known as, say, the Strawman or the Appeal to Authority. And yet, as evidence-based truth-seekers and diligent data skeptics, we must keep our eyes peeled for simple mistakes as well as deliberate attacks. 

The motte and bailey fallacy is a rhetorical technique where the proponent is essentially saying two things: one more defensible but less interesting (the motte), and one less defensible but more interesting (the bailey). The concept was invented by Nicholas Shackel and was popularised by Scott Alexander.

In a typical motte and bailey argument, the proponent will establish common ground with the opponent. This safe or neutral space is analogous to the motte. For example, the proponent might ask, "Are you in favor of inclusion?" And the obvious answer is, "Of course!"  Who would be opposed to inclusion?  Having established the motte, the proponent can now assert that language which is offensive to minorities has the effect of excluding them by making them feel unwelcome. When the opponent counters with a freedom of speech argument, the proponent can claim, falsely, that the opponent is against inclusion. See how it works? 

I would welcome your thoughts on this type of fallacy. Please feel free to leave a comment. Have you seen this fallacy before? Can you cite some examples? Will you keep an eye out for it to avoid using it yourself, or being tricked by it? 

For your convenience, I have included some references below. Feel free to use those or others of your choosing--there are many just a quick search away. 

Thanks for reading. The world needs evidence-based truth-seekers and diligent data skeptics now, more than ever! 

References 

What are Logical Fallacies? 

https://successfulstudent.org/the-art-to-argument-persuasion-logical-fallacies/

https://kreativcopywriting.com/10-logical-fallacies-know-spot/ 

What is a Motte and Bailey Castle (the namesake of the Motte and Bailey Fallacy)?

https://www.castlesworld.com/tools/motte-and-bailey-castles.php

https://www.worldhistory.org/Motte_and_Bailey_Castle/ 

What is the Motte and Bailey Fallacy?

https://answersingenesis.org/blogs/patricia-engler/2021/01/27/logical-fallacies-motte-bailey-arguments/

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Motte_and_bailey

Remember and Honor: Memorial Day, 2023

 

In memoriam

The following 39 comrades-in-arms died while in service to the Nation. We remember their sacrifice this Memorial Day, and always.

Chronological

• WOC Lee Price, 1978, helicopter accident, Alabama

• CPT Mario Fajardo, 1991, minefield accident, Iraq.

• SPC Gilman, 1999, traffic accident, North Macedonia.

Pentagon 9/11/2001

Colleagues, alphabetically after Leadership

1. LTG Timothy Maude, 1947-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

2. CSM Larry Strickland, 1949-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

3. SPC Craig Amundson, 1973-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

4. MSG (Ret) Max Beilke, 1932-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

5. COL Canfield "Bud" Boone, 1948-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

6. SFC Jose Calderon, 1957-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

7. CTR Gerald Fisher, 1944-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

8. COL (Ret) Ron Golinski, 1941-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

9. LTC Stephen "Neil" Hyland (fellow Notre Dame alum), 1955-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

10. SGM Lacey Ivory, 1958-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

11. LTC Dennis Johnson, 1953-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

12. MAJ Steve Long, 1962-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

13. CTR Terry Lynch, 1952-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

14. MAJ Ron Milam, 1968-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

15. DAC Odessa Morris, 1947-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

16. DAC Deb Ramsaur (Germany), 1956-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

17. CW4 William Ruth, 1943-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

18. COL Dave Scales, 1956-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

19. DAC Marion Serva, 1954-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

20. LTC (Ret) Gary Smith, 1945-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

21. DAC Patricia Statz, 1960-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

22. LTC Kip Taylor, 1963-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

23. SGT Tamera Thurman, 1976-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

24. LTC Karen Wagner, 1961-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

25. SPC Chin "Sunny" Pak Wells, 1976-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

26. CTR Ernest Willcher, 1938-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

27. MAJ Dwayne Williams, 1961-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

28. CTR Edmond Young, 1979-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

29. DAC Lisa Young, 1963-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

9/11 victims who were family of my colleagues

• DAC Patty Mickley, sister of a friend, 1959-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

• DAC Don Simmons, husband of a friend, 1943-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

• DAC Cheryl Sincock, wife of a friend, 1946-2001, 9/11 terror attack, Pentagon

Chronological, continued

• MAJ Pete Graff, 2003, suicide, Charlottesville. Pete was an exceptional platoon leader in the 497th Engineer Company.

• SES Reginald Brown, 2005, pancreatic cancer, Pentagon. I was Mr. Brown’s Military Aide when he suddenly became ill.

• LTC (Ret) James Daron, 2010, lymphoma, Kansas. Jim and I served together in Iraq and I dedicated my Iron Butt Association ride to him.

• MAJ Joe Jones, 2012, colon cancer, Virginia. Joe and I served together in the Pentagon.

ONLY 16 COUNTRIES LEFT!

Thank you to the unknown (to me, yet) but most welcome visitor from the British Indian Ocean Territory!  

As of April 13, 2023, readers from 226 of 242 countries (a whopping 93.4% of the globe) have visited this page at least once, according to my friends at Flag Counter. 

Who's next? Cabo Verde? Mauritania? Palau? How about Saint Bart's? Only 16 remain....

Perhaps one of you regular readers will decide to become a digital nomad and work from a tropical paradise with good Wi-Fi. That lifestyle sounds appealing to me, too! Let's go island-hopping and check into PhilosFX as we travel. So who's with me? 

Which country will be the 227th?    

Cabo Verde

Palau

Tuvalu

Trust Science?

 

Source: https://netivist.org/

Science produced wonderful insights over the centuries. We know more today than we did 10, 100, or 1000 years ago. Are we done? Have we learned all there is to learn about the universe and time and life?

Of course not.

"Since we know we don’t know what we don’t know, why would we assume that what we do know is enough?"

Don’t "trust" the science. No legitimate scientist would ever say, "Trust me, I am a scientist." Instead, follow the science, because science is the best way we have for falsifying competing theories.

Follow science, not scientists. Scientists are humans and thus fallible and suceptible. Scientists themselves know this, and for this reason the scientific method features a process of verification known as peer-review. The community is less likely to be wrong than any one individual. Paradoxically, the greatest advances in science have occurred when an individual challenged the frontier of human knowledge in an unexpected way. Progress depends on the rogues.

Bottom line: Life is an experiment. Choose your questions carefully. When you see an answer, be skeptical and critically examine the investigator's motive, funding source, context, method, results, and conclusions. Have the results been peer reviewed and replicated? Some questions are better than others and some answers are deadly.

The ‘doomed’ resistance in Ukraine

A reflection inspired by McAulay's Horatius at the Bridge 

Reading about the 'doomed' resistance in Ukraine reminds me of McAulay's Horatius at the Bridge [1], especially these lines:

“…To every man upon this earth, death cometh soon or late;

 And how can man die better than facing fearful odds,

For the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods,

"And for the tender mother who dandled him to rest,

And for the wife who nurses his baby at her breast,

And for the holy maidens who feed the eternal flame…”

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems determined to win at all costs. Meanwhile, under Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the people of Ukraine are unexpectedly and boldly defiant. Like Horatius at the Tiber river bridge, they are fighting, defending, holding--protecting their families and their property, and giving nothing away. 

Reminiscent of Lars Porsena's Etruscan army attacking Rome as described in McAulay's epic poem, Russia’s forces are extended. The logistics tail is weakening. With the ruble’s value plummeting, the attackers risk finding themselves out of food and fuel, losing support from home, and surrounded by angry defenders wielding pitchforks and torches. 

Putin’s arsenal includes artillery, airborne infantry, and nuclear weapons. Let’s hope a desperate Putin does not resort to drastic (read: nuclear) measures. 

Wait! Strike that.... Let's not hope. Hope is not a method [2]. Let us instead work, co-operate, and sacrifice to ensure Putin does not employ his nukes and thus invite mutually assured destruction.  

Is Ukraine 'doomed'? 

Against Putin's deep resources, Ukraine cannot win militarily, but that does not mean they will be "defeated." Zelensky’s bravery is rallying the West. The resistance has already lasted longer than many analysts predicted, and longer is better! The extended resistance has bought time for the EU and the UN to impose sharper sanctions, cut off SWIFT, and consider Ukraine's request for expedited membership in EU. These measures offer the best path to a favorable outcome but they still require Putin to capitulate. Support is taking many forms, but we in the West who prefer to see a free and independent Ukraine should be reluctant to cause a military escalation. 

Putin’s unlikely to withdraw. His military victory is inevitable but increasingly expensive. Without military aid from the West, there will be heavy casualties before the smoke clears. Having won the territory at great expense, Putin will install a puppet government and attempt to control the population. I suspect he will find governing the region and the people of Ukraine even more difficult and costly than capturing the territory.

The consequences of a Putin victory in Ukraine are impossible to calculate. The former Soviet satellite nations of Estonia, Latvia, Moldova would face attacks next, forcing NATO to invoke Article 5. Russia's allies, China, North Korea, and Iran would join the fray. China would take Taiwan. North Korea would make a move on South Korea. Surely Iran would push west past Iraq and Syria in their attempt to shove Israel off the map. In short, a Putin victory in Ukraine is tantamount to Armageddon.  

To forestall a third World War, we must support Ukraine, NATO, and the EU, to contain Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. 

The long game for Ukraine is to see the day when Putin finally realizes he made a terrible mistake. Once his propaganda machine is unable to persuade, and his economy is in tatters, and his oligarchs have fled with what they could salvage from their wealth, the aspirations of a dictator and would-be emperor will implode. Balance based on fair trade and strong defenses will be restored.  

So the Western alliance is walking a fine line here, staying on the sidelines, using diplomacy and economic sanctions instead of providing direct support to Zelensky. Putin is determined and undeterred. Many Ukrainian fighters and civilians will be casualties in the conflict. Eventually, Putin will come to see Kyiv as his Waterloo. He will fail as a dictator, and disappear into the dustbin of history. Then these Ukrainian dead, who died facing 'fearful odds', shall not have died in vain. 

Thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing.

Notes:

[1] Gill, N.S. (2020, August 26). 'Horatius at the Bridge' by Thomas Babington McAulay. Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com/horatius-at-the-bridge-4070724 

[2] The title of General Gordon Sullivan's memoir is apropos. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/175183/hope-is-not-a-method-by-gordon-r-sullivan/

Happy Mid-Winter / Imbolc / St. Brigid’s Day!

Imbolc is a Celtic pagan religious holiday celebrated each year from sundown February 1st to sundown on the 2nd. The date marks the halfway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. 

The name Imbolc can be translated literally as “in the belly,” and figuratively as anticipating the birth of Spring. 

Imbolc originated as a festival in honor of the pagan goddess Brigid, a powerful woman and the matron of healing, arts, fertility, poetry, music, prophecy, and agriculture. 

Today, Brigid is considered the matron saint of Ireland. She was born c. 451 in Faughart,and died c. 525 (age 74) in Kildare. 

"Fun fact about Brigid is that she is a synchronized goddess who stayed virtually intact as a saint. Her shrine is at Kildare where you can still draw from Her healing well and visit Her perpetual flame."

                                                 --Heather Gaffney Darnell, intuitive reader

Happy Mid-Winter / Imbolc / St. Brigid’s Day!

Enjoy these links:

Songs for Imbolc 

St. Brigid's Well

White Magick Alchemy

The feast of St Brigid
Phoenix Intuitive Arts and Entertainment

Map of Kildare and Environs

Year of the Water Tiger

Happy LunarNewYear to all who are celebrating! 

Year of the Water Tiger

May the Year of the Water Tiger bring us peace, prosperity, and happiness.

"Lunar New Year (Chinese Chunjie, Vietnamese Tet, Korean Solnal, Tibetan Losar), also called Spring Festival, begins with the first new moon of the lunar calendar and ends on the first full moon of the lunar calendar, 15 days later." --Britannica

Enjoy these links:

Lunar New Year 101

Traditions in Thailand, Korea, China