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Sunday, May 29, 2022

Trust Science?

 

Source: https://netivist.org/


Science produced wonderful insights over the centuries. We know more today than we did 10, 100, or 1000 years ago. Are we done? Have we learned all there is to learn about the universe and time and life?

Of course not.

"Since we know we don’t know what we don’t know, why would we assume that what we do know is enough?"

Don’t "trust" the science. No legitimate scientist would ever say, "Trust me, I am a scientist." Instead, follow the science, because science is the best way we have for falsifying competing theories.

Follow science, not scientists. Scientists are humans and thus fallible and suceptible. Scientists themselves know this, and for this reason the scientific method features a process of verification known as peer-review. The community is less likely to be wrong than any one individual. Paradoxically, the greatest advances in science have occurred when an individual challenged the frontier of human knowledge in an unexpected way. Progress depends on the rogues.

Bottom line: Life is an experiment. Choose your questions carefully. When you see an answer, be skeptical and critically examine the investigator's motive, funding source, context, method, results, and conclusions. Have the results been peer reviewed and replicated? Some questions are better than others and some answers are deadly.

Tuesday, March 1, 2022

The ‘doomed’ resistance in Ukraine

A reflection inspired by McAulay's Horatius at the Bridge 

Reading about the 'doomed' resistance in Ukraine reminds me of McAulay's Horatius at the Bridge [1], especially these lines:

“…To every man upon this earth, death cometh soon or late;
 And how can man die better than facing fearful odds,
For the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods,
"And for the tender mother who dandled him to rest,
And for the wife who nurses his baby at her breast,
And for the holy maidens who feed the eternal flame…”

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems determined to win at all costs. Meanwhile, under Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the people of Ukraine are unexpectedly and boldly defiant. Like Horatius at the Tiber river bridge, they are fighting, defending, holding--protecting their families and their property, and giving nothing away. 




Reminiscent of Lars Porsena's Etruscan army attacking Rome as described in McAulay's epic poem, Russia’s forces are extended. The logistics tail is weakening. With the ruble’s value plummeting, the attackers risk finding themselves out of food and fuel, losing support from home, and surrounded by angry defenders wielding pitchforks and torches. 

Putin’s arsenal includes artillery, airborne infantry, and nuclear weapons. Let’s hope a desperate Putin does not resort to drastic (read: nuclear) measures. 

Wait! Strike that.... Let's not hope. Hope is not a method [2]. Let us instead work, co-operate, and sacrifice to ensure Putin does not employ his nukes and thus invite mutually assured destruction.  






Is Ukraine 'doomed'? 


Against Putin's deep resources, Ukraine cannot win militarily, but that does not mean they will be "defeated." Zelensky’s bravery is rallying the West. The resistance has already lasted longer than many analysts predicted, and longer is better! The extended resistance has bought time for the EU and the UN to impose sharper sanctions, cut off SWIFT, and consider Ukraine's request for expedited membership in EU. These measures offer the best path to a favorable outcome but they still require Putin to capitulate. Support is taking many forms, but we in the West who prefer to see a free and independent Ukraine should be reluctant to cause a military escalation. 

Putin’s unlikely to withdraw. His military victory is inevitable but increasingly expensive. Without military aid from the West, there will be heavy casualties before the smoke clears. Having won the territory at great expense, Putin will install a puppet government and attempt to control the population. I suspect he will find governing the region and the people of Ukraine even more difficult and costly than capturing the territory.

The consequences of a Putin victory in Ukraine are impossible to calculate. The former Soviet satellite nations of Estonia, Latvia, Moldova would face attacks next, forcing NATO to invoke Article 5. Russia's allies, China, North Korea, and Iran would join the fray. China would take Taiwan. North Korea would make a move on South Korea. Surely Iran would push west past Iraq and Syria in their attempt to shove Israel off the map. In short, a Putin victory in Ukraine is tantamount to Armageddon.  

To forestall a third World War, we must support Ukraine, NATO, and the EU, to contain Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. 

The long game for Ukraine is to see the day when Putin finally realizes he made a terrible mistake. Once his propaganda machine is unable to persuade, and his economy is in tatters, and his oligarchs have fled with what they could salvage from their wealth, the aspirations of a dictator and would-be emperor will implode. Balance based on fair trade and strong defenses will be restored.  

So the Western alliance is walking a fine line here, staying on the sidelines, using diplomacy and economic sanctions instead of providing direct support to Zelensky. Putin is determined and undeterred. Many Ukrainian fighters and civilians will be casualties in the conflict. Eventually, Putin will come to see Kyiv as his Waterloo. He will fail as a dictator, and disappear into the dustbin of history. Then these Ukrainian dead, who died facing 'fearful odds', shall not have died in vain. 

Thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing.


Notes:

[1] Gill, N.S. (2020, August 26). 'Horatius at the Bridge' by Thomas Babington McAulay. Retrieved from https://www.thoughtco.com/horatius-at-the-bridge-4070724 

[2] The title of General Gordon Sullivan's memoir is apropos. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/175183/hope-is-not-a-method-by-gordon-r-sullivan/

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Happy Mid-Winter / Imbolc / St. Brigid’s Day!



Imbolc is a Celtic pagan religious holiday celebrated each year from sundown February 1st to sundown on the 2nd. The date marks the halfway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. 

The name Imbolc can be translated literally as “in the belly,” and figuratively as anticipating the birth of Spring. 

Imbolc originated as a festival in honor of the pagan goddess Brigid, a powerful woman and the matron of healing, arts, fertility, poetry, music, prophecy, and agriculture. 

Today, Brigid is considered the matron saint of Ireland. She was born c. 451 in Faughart,and died c. 525 (age 74) in Kildare

"Fun fact about Brigid is that she is a synchronized goddess who stayed virtually intact as a saint. Her shrine is at Kildare where you can still draw from Her healing well and visit Her perpetual flame."

                                                 --Heather Gaffney Darnell, intuitive reader


Happy Mid-Winter / Imbolc / St. Brigid’s Day!


Enjoy these links:


Year of the Water Tiger

Happy LunarNewYear to all who are celebrating! 


Year of the Water Tiger


May the Year of the Water Tiger bring us peace, prosperity, and happiness.

"Lunar New Year (Chinese Chunjie, Vietnamese Tet, Korean Solnal, Tibetan Losar), also called Spring Festival, begins with the first new moon of the lunar calendar and ends on the first full moon of the lunar calendar, 15 days later." --Britannica



Enjoy these links:

Saturday, January 29, 2022

Map of Emotional Manifestations in the Body

 



Across cultures, people feel increased activity in different parts of the body as their mental state changes. 




"A new study by Finnish researchers published today [Dec 30, 2013] in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences, suggests that our emotions do indeed tend to influence our bodies in consistent ways."

"It's worth noting that the bodily sensations weren't blood flow, heat, or anything else that could be measured objectively—they were based solely on physical twinges subjects said they experienced."


Excerpts are from an article by Olga Khazan which was published in The Atlantic on December 30, 2013 and accessed January 29, 2021 from https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/12/mapping-how-emotions-manifest-in-the-body/282713/. 

I spotted the colorful graphic in the Facebook Story of a friend and fellow veteran who shares my interest in a range of health issues. Searching for the original source, I saw that it had already been re-shared multiple times--and rightly so. Hat Tip to Keith Toy, aka Buzz Lightyear.